Dead on target on the first day of the new year, Byron Wien again published its annual list of surprises to expect in the coming years. 
Vienna, chief investment strategist of Pequot Capital, is the publication of its list of economic, market and political surprises, since 1986.
1. Despite the Federal Reserve to facilitate, and other policies, the U.S. economy suffers its first recession since 2001 as housing starts stay soft and banks are reluctant to lend to someone a hint of risk is clear. Federal funds fall to less than 3%. Unemployment is finally more than 5% and consumer spending is lack luster.
2. Standard and Poor's 500 earnings decline year-on-year and the index fell to 10 percent. Energy and materials stocks up relatively well in what is seen as a correction than a bear market. Market conditions start to improve in the summer.
3. The dollar strengthened in the first half now $ 1.35 against the euro and will be the second of more than $ 1.50. The European Central Bank begins an accommodative monetary policy. Foreign investors flock to buy cheap assets in the United States early in the year, but the dollar declines later as several countries with large reserves spread to other assets.
4. Inflation rises above 5 percent on the consumer price index, as higher commodity prices and oil finally begin to have an impact despite modest wage increases. The 10-year-old U. S. Treasury leyden to 5 percent. Stagflation is frequent presidential campaign and Op-Ed discussion topic.
5. Oil prices go early in the year and up later, sinking to $ 80 per barrel in the first half as western economies slow and inventories are drawn down, up to $ 115 in the second. Established wells continue to decline in production, while China, India and the Middle East consumption.
6. Agricultural commodities remain strong. Corn rises to $ 6 A Bushel and cotton to 85 cents per pound. Gold at $ 1,000 an ounce as disillusionment with paper currencies in Asia.
7. The recession in the United States slows the Chinese economy modest, but the stock market drops significantly. Investors recognize that paying biotechnology stock Combi very cyclical companies does not make sense. The revaluation of the Chinese renminbi another 10 percent to inflation, and as a gesture to foreign governments participating in the Olympic Games who complain that Chinese terms of trade are unfair. Several long distance runners refuse to compete in certain Olympic events because of continuing air pollution problems.
8. The new Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, under hoot of Vladimir Putin, more assertive in the world. He insists that Russian oil and gas to be paid in Russian Rubles and demands a seat at major international conferences. Russia and Brazil stock markets leyden Brice. Gulf Cooperation Council markets begin to attract interest among emerging market investors.
9. To improve the infrastructure is an important election issue for both parties and construction and engineering stocks rally in anticipation of the major programs started as the new president of the inauguration. Water is a critical problem throughout the world and desalination shares rose.
10. Barack Obama is the 44th president in a landslide victory over Mitt Romney. With conditions in Iraq improve the weak economy will decide the question in voters' minds. They want to make sure that gridlock ends and Congress is something done for a change. The final Senate Democrats with 60 seats and a clear majority in the House of Representatives.
Vienna added that he believes these surprises, where the consensus will award a one-on-three chance of happening, have at least 50 percent likely to occur at any time during the year.
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